The Impact of Settlement Growth on Food Security Vulnerability: The Mediating Role of Rice Field Conversion and the Moderating Role of Agricultural Human Resource Capacity in Central Java
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37385/ijedr.v6i6.10227Keywords:
settlement growth; rice field conversion; agricultural human resource capacity; food security vulnerability.Abstract
Settlement growth in Central Java Province continues to increase and intensify competition for land use with agricultural land, particularly rice fields. Uncontrolled rice field conversion has the potential to weaken the food production base and increase regional food security vulnerability. This study analyses the effect of residential growth on food security vulnerability with rice field conversion as a mediating variable and agricultural human resource capacity as a moderating variable in 35 districts/cities in Central Java. The study uses an explanatory quantitative approach based on secondary panel data for the period 2010–2021 (420 observations) with saturated sampling technique. The analysis was conducted using Partial Least Squares–Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) to evaluate the measurement model, test structural relationships, estimate indirect effects, and assess moderation effects through interaction constructs. The results show that settlement growth has a positive and significant effect on rice field conversion. Rice field conversion has a positive and significant effect on food security vulnerability and significantly mediates the effect of settlement growth on food security vulnerability. In addition, agricultural human resource capacity moderates the relationship between rice field conversion and food security vulnerability with a negative moderation direction (dampening effect), so that in areas with higher human resource capacity, the impact of rice field conversion in increasing food vulnerability tends to be weaker. These findings confirm that the impact of settlement growth on food vulnerability mainly occurs through land use change and can be mitigated by strengthening agricultural human resource capacity. The policy implications emphasise the need to integrate settlement growth control, protection of productive rice fields, and strengthening of agricultural human resource capacity through improving the quality of extension services and accelerating technology adoption to maintain the resilience of the food system in Central Java.
References
Abu Hatab, A., Cavinato, M. E. R., Lindemer, A., & Lagerkvist, C. J. (2019). Urban sprawl, food security and agricultural systems in developing countries: A systematic review. Cities, 94, 129–142. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2019.06.001
Akmal, F. A., & Mohammadi, Y. (2025). The nexus of agricultural land use change and food security: A comprehensive systematic review. Land Use Policy, 158, 107717. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107717
Angel, S., Parent, J., Civco, D. L., & Blei, A. (2010). The persistent decline in urban densities: Global and historical evidence of sprawl. Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.
Arellano, M. (1987). Computing robust standard errors for within-groups estimators. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 49(4), 431–434.
Azadi, H., Ho, P., & Hasfiati, L. (2019). Agricultural land conversion drivers and impacts: A global review. Land, 8(5), 73. https://doi.org/10.3390/land8050073
Central Java Provincial Statistics Agency. (2010–2021). Various publications and statistical data on regencies/cities in Central Java Province (panel data on 35 regions). Central Java Provincial Statistics Agency.
Baron, R. M., & Kenny, D. A. (1986). The moderator–mediator variable distinction in social psychological research: Conceptual, strategic, and statistical considerations. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 51(6), 1173–1182. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.51.6.1173
Barrett, C. B. (2010). Measuring food insecurity. Science, 327(5967), 825–828. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1182768
Brambor, T., Clark, W. R., & Golder, M. (2006). Understanding interaction models: Improving empirical analyses. Political Analysis, 14(1), 63–82. https://doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpi014
Bren d’Amour, C., Reitsma, F., Baiocchi, G., Barthel, S., Güneralp, B., Erb, K.-H., Haberl, H., Creutzig, F., & Seto, K. C. (2017). Future urban land expansion and implications for global croplands. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 114(34), 8939–8944. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1606036114
Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239–253. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297111
Chen, Y., Wang, J., & Chen, Z. (2021). Urbanisation, land-use change, and food security: Evidence from developing countries. Sustainability, 13(4), 2087. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13042087
Chow, G. C. (1960). Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions. Econometrica, 28(3), 591–605. https://doi.org/10.2307/1910133
Cohen, J. (1988). Statistical power analysis for the behavioural sciences (2nd ed.). Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.
Dewi, Y. A., Bahru, B. A., & Zeller, M. (2024). Performance of agricultural extension agents in Indonesia: Evidence from a nationally representative survey. The Journal of Agricultural Education and Extension, 31(4), 527–553. https://doi.org/10.1080/1389224X.2024.2407178
FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP, & WHO. (2023). The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2023. Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations. https://doi.org/10.4060/cc3017en
FAO. (2017). The future of food and agriculture: Trends and challenges. Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations.
Firman, T. (2016). Urbanisation and urban development patterns in Indonesia. Cities, 52, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2015.11.017
Firman, T., Kombaitan, B., & Pradono. (2017). The dynamics of Indonesia’s urbanisation, 1980–2015. Land Use Policy, 68, 490–499. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2017.08.012
Hair, J. F., Hult, G. T. M., Ringle, C. M., & Sarstedt, M. (2022). A primer on partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) (3rd ed.). SAGE Publications.
Hair, J. F., Risher, J. J., Sarstedt, M., & Ringle, C. M. (2019). When to use and how to report the results of PLS-SEM. European Business Review, 31(1), 2–24. https://doi.org/10.1108/EBR-11-2018-0203
Handayani, W., Rudiarto, I., & Setyono, J. S. (2022). Urban growth and agricultural land conversion in Java Island. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 950, 012041. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/950/1/012041
Hausman, J. A. (1978). Specification tests in econometrics. Econometrica, 46(6), 1251–1271. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913827
Henseler, J., Ringle, C. M., & Sarstedt, M. (2015). A new criterion for assessing discriminant validity in variance-based structural equation modelling. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 43(1), 115–135. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11747-014-0403-8
Hudalah, D., Winarso, H., & Woltjer, J. (2015). Industrial land development and urban transformation in Indonesia. Habitat International, 47, 239–246. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2015.01.020
Imai, K., Keele, L., & Yamamoto, T. (2010). Identification, inference and sensitivity analysis for causal mediation effects. Statistical Science, 25(1), 51–71. https://doi.org/10.1214/10-STS321
Lambin, E. F., & Meyfroidt, P. (2011). Global land use change, economic globalisation, and the looming land scarcity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 108(9), 3465–3472. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1100480108
Liu, X., Huang, Y., Xu, X., et al. (2018). High-resolution mapping of global urban land expansion. Nature Sustainability, 1, 348–355. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-018-0079-x
Long, H., Qu, Y., Tu, S., Zhang, Y., & Jiang, Y. (2020). Development of land use transitions research in China. Land Use Policy, 91, 104319. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.104319
O’Brien, R. M. (2007). A caution regarding rules of thumb for variance inflation factors. Quality & Quantity, 41, 673–690. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-006-9018-6
Pravitasari, A. E., Indraprahasta, G. S., Rustiadi, E., Rosandi, D., Stanny, J. J., Wulandari, S., Priatama, R., & Murtadho, A. (2024). Dynamics and predictions of urban expansion in Java, Indonesia: Continuity and change in mega-urbanisation. ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information, 13(3), 102. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi13030102
Preacher, K. J., & Hayes, A. F. (2008). Asymptotic and resampling strategies for assessing and comparing indirect effects in multiple mediator models. Behaviour Research Methods, 40(3), 879–891. https://doi.org/10.3758/BRM.40.3.879
Pribadi, D. O., Widiatmaka, & Munibah, K. (2021). Paddy field conversion and food security sustainability in Java. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 747, 012030. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/747/1/012030
Suryani, E., Hendrawan, R., & Nugroho, A. (2022). Urban growth, land conversion, and food security in Indonesia. Sustainability, 14(9), 5432. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14095432
Tacoli, C. (2017). Food (in)security in rapidly urbanising, low-income contexts. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 14(12), 1554. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14121554
Todaro, M. P., & Smith, S. C. (2020). Economic development (13th ed.). Pearson Education.
Vonthron, S., Perrin, C., & Soulard, C.-T. (2021). Food and agriculture in the urban–rural continuum: A spatial analysis of food system sustainability. Food Security, 13, 1085–1102. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-021-01182-8
White, H. (1980). A heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimator and a direct test for heteroskedasticity. Econometrica, 48(4), 817–838. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912934
