Pengaruh Digital Payment, Inklusi Keuangan, Ketergantungan Impor Barang Dan Kualitas Infrastruktur Logistik Terhadap Inflasi Di Negara Berkembang
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37385/ceej.v7i1.11717Keywords:
Digital Payment; Inklusi Keuangan; Ketergantungan Impor; Infrastruktur Logistik; Inflasi; Negara Berkembang..Abstract
Penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh digital payment, inklusi keuangan, ketergantungan impor barang, dan kualitas infrastruktur logistik terhadap inflasi di negara berkembang periode 2019–2023. Inflasi diposisikan sebagai fenomena makroekonomi yang dipengaruhi oleh faktor teknologi keuangan, struktur perdagangan, dan kualitas infrastruktur distribusi. Data sekunder diperoleh dari World Development Indicators (WDI) dan Logistics Performance Index (LPI) yang dipublikasikan oleh World Bank, serta dianalisis menggunakan regresi data panel melalui Common Effect Model (CEM), Fixed Effect Model (FEM), dan Random Effect Model (REM). Pemilihan model terbaik dilakukan dengan uji Chow, uji Hausman, dan uji Lagrange Multiplier (LM), yang menetapkan Random Effect Model sebagai model paling sesuai. Hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa secara simultan seluruh variabel berpengaruh signifikan terhadap inflasi (Prob. F = 0,002315), dengan nilai R² sebesar 0,3145 atau 31,45%. Secara parsial, hanya digital payment yang berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap inflasi (β = 2,0949; Prob. = 0,037), sementara inklusi keuangan, ketergantungan impor barang, dan kualitas infrastruktur logistik tidak berpengaruh signifikan. Temuan ini mengindikasikan bahwa ekspansi sistem pembayaran digital tanpa disertai regulasi yang memadai berpotensi mendorong tekanan inflasi melalui mekanisme akselerasi konsumsi yang melampaui kapasitas penawaran domestik. Pengendalian inflasi di negara berkembang memerlukan kebijakan moneter yang responsif, penguatan regulasi ekosistem keuangan digital, dan pembangunan kapasitas institusional sebagai fondasi stabilitas harga yang berkelanjutan.
References
Agence Française de Développement (AFD). (2022). MacroDev Panorama: Commodity prices and developing countries. AFD. https://www.afd.fr/en/actualites/how-soaring-commodity-prices-are-affecting-developing-countries
Arshad, M. U., Ahmed, Z., Ramzan, A., Shabbir, M. N., Bashir, Z., & Khan, F. N. (2021). Financial inclusion and monetary policy effectiveness: A sustainable development approach of developed and under-developed countries. PLOS ONE, 16(12), e0261337. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0261337
Biswas, G. K., & Ahamed, F. (2023). Financial inclusion and monetary policy: A study on the relationship between financial inclusion and effectiveness of monetary policy in developing countries. arXiv preprint arXiv:2308.12542.
Carrière-Swallow, Y., Deb, P., Furceri, D., Jiménez, D., & Ostry, J. (2023). Shipping costs and inflation. Journal of International Money and Finance, 130, 102771. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2022.102771
Csonto, B., Huang, Y., & Tovar, C. E. (2019). Is digitalization driving domestic inflation? IMF Working Paper, No. 19/271. International Monetary Fund. https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513519944.001
Emara, N., & Zecheru, D. (2024). Asymmetric threshold effects of digitization on inflation in emerging markets. Financial Innovation, 10(1), 32. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-023-00545-8
Ervynasari, A., & Faridatussalam, S. R. (2025). Peran Sekolah Ekspor dalam mencetak eksportir baru melalui program studi independen Be a Digital Exporter. ABDISOSHUM: Jurnal Pengabdian Masyarakat Bidang Sosial dan Humaniora, 4(2). https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=Peran+Sekolah+Ekspor+dalam+Mencetak+Eksportir+Baru
Ha, J., Kose, M. A., & Ohnsorge, F. (Eds.). (2019). Inflation in emerging and developing economies: Evolution, drivers, and policies. World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1375-7
Hausman, J. A. (1978). Specification tests in econometrics. Econometrica, 46(6), 1251–1271. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913827
Huda, M. F., & Faridatussalam, S. R. (2025). Analysis of economic growth in Central Java 2003–2019. International Journal of Economics and Management Research, 4(1), 654–660.
IMF. (2023). World Economic Outlook: October 2023 — Navigating global divergences. International Monetary Fund. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO
Kaundinya, U., Bhattacharya, I., Lele, U., Rao, N. H., & Ananthachar, V. (2022). Gross domestic product and logistics performance index drive the world trade: A study based on all continents. PLOS ONE, 17(3), e0264554. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0264554
Kebede, J., Selvanathan, S., & Naranpanawa, A. (2024). Financial inclusion and monetary policy effectiveness in a monetary union: Heterogeneous panel approach. Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, 32(1), 3–30. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecot.12402
Luo, P., & Tanaka, T. (2021). Food import dependency and national food security: A price transmission analysis for the wheat sector. Foods, 10(8), 1715. https://doi.org/10.3390/foods10081715
Ozili, P. K. (2021). Financial inclusion research around the world: A review. Forum for Social Economics, 50(4), 457–479. https://doi.org/10.1080/07360932.2020.1715238
Ramadhani, N. N., & Faridatussalam, S. R. (2024). Analisis infrastruktur terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di 5 negara ASEAN. Al Qalam: Jurnal Ilmiah Keagamaan dan Kemasyarakatan, 18(2), 1125–1136. https://doi.org/10.35931/aq.v18i2.3392
Syafi'i, A. (2025). Econometric analysis of inflation dynamics in digital payment ecosystems in emerging markets. Journal of Applied Econometric, 1(1). https://garuda.kemdiktisaintek.go.id/documents/detail/5729396
World Bank. (2023). Connecting to compete 2023: Trade logistics in an uncertain global economy. World Bank. https://lpi.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/2023-04/LPI_2023_report.pdf
Template
