Kajian Indikator Ekonomi Makro Terhadap Kinerja Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.37385/ceej.v7i4.12249Keywords:
neraca perdagangan; impor; nilai tukar; VAR; dekomposisi variansAbstract
Neraca perdagangan merupakan indikator penting stabilitas eksternal Indonesia. Namun, bukti empiris mengenai keterkaitannya dengan indikator makroekonomi masih belum konsisten, terutama pada periode yang mencakup guncangan pandemi COVID-19 dan pemulihannya. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis keterkaitan dinamis antara neraca perdagangan, ekspor, impor, nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS, dan produk domestik bruto (PDB) Indonesia selama 2013–2023. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan model Vector Autoregression (VAR) yang didahului uji stasioneritas Augmented Dickey–Fuller, uji kointegrasi Johansen, penentuan lag optimal, dan uji stabilitas model, lalu dilanjutkan dengan Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD). Uji Johansen mengidentifikasi tiga persamaan kointegrasi, yang menunjukkan adanya hubungan keseimbangan jangka panjang antarvariabel. Hasil FEVD menunjukkan bahwa neraca perdagangan memiliki persistensi tinggi: dalam jangka pendek variasinya sepenuhnya dijelaskan oleh guncangannya sendiri, sedangkan kontribusi ekspor, impor, dan nilai tukar baru muncul bertahap dalam jangka menengah dan panjang. Impor menempati posisi sentral dalam sistem karena menjelaskan 26,98% variasi ekspor, 21,98% variasi nilai tukar, dan 27,89% variasi PDB dalam jangka panjang. Temuan ini mencerminkan ketergantungan produksi dan ekspor nasional pada bahan baku dan barang modal impor. Implikasi kebijakannya mencakup pendalaman struktur industri hulu melalui substitusi impor yang selektif, stabilisasi nilai tukar disertai perluasan transaksi mata uang lokal, serta koordinasi kebijakan perdagangan, moneter, dan industri yang berorientasi jangka menengah–panjang.
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